Saturday, June 6, 2009

Do the Parties take certain demographics for granted?

Both parties have come to depend on certain coalitions to win elections. Republicans rely on white evangelicals, economic conservatives, and foreign policy hawks. Democrats rely on racial minorities, labor unions, environmentalists, and feminists.

Certain groups within these coalitions tend to get shortchanged. For Democrats, it’s often been blacks, while for Republicans it has been white evangelicals.

Let’s start with blacks and democrats. For around 40 years now, blacks have given close to 90% of their votes to democrats. Much of this was because of Lyndon Johnson’s support for civil rights and black advancement. Also, as conservatives took over the Republican Party in 1964, blacks felt less welcome. For example, Barry Goldwater opposed the civil rights act and carried states in the Deep South in 1964. William F. Buckley, the father of the conservative movement once wrote that:

The central question that emerges . . . is whether the White community in the South is entitled to take such measures as are necessary to prevail, politically and culturally, in areas in which it does not prevail numerically? The sobering answer is Yes — the White community is so entitled because, for the time being, it is the advanced race. It is not easy, and it is unpleasant, to adduce statistics evidencing the cultural superiority of White over Negro: but it is a fact that obtrudes, one that cannot be hidden by ever-so-busy egalitarians and anthropologists.

After the civil rights movement, blacks felt targeted by Republicans when they ran ads like Jesse Helms’ quota ads in 1990, and the Willie Horton ads during the 1988 election. Here are the links:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIyewCdXMzk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y&feature=related

So blacks have often felt like they simply had no choice. They became loyal democrats. But in many ways, they have received precious little in the way of recompense for their staunch support. Inner city schools have not received real reform; the most sincere effort might well have been No Child Left Behind by Republican George W. Bush. Disparate drug laws are just now being revised after decades of disproportionately putting black men in jail. Mandatory minimums are still in place. The election of a black President, Barack Obama, is a huge silver lining, but it is still important to see what concretes steps he and the democrats take to make life better for poor blacks.

Traditionally, blacks have been a radioactive part of the Democratic base. Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson for example are less popular with whites than affirmative action, hard as that is to believe. Democrats need black support to win elections, but they also need to win white moderates. Appearing to be too overtly pro-black during the 1980s and 1990s would have hurt these efforts tremendously.

Evangelicals have faced a similar problem with the Republican Party. There isn’t really a place in a democratic party which is staunchly pro-choice, and where a considerable segment of the party elite detest the Religious Right. Evangelicals have failed to win any major policy victories aside from ephemeral triumphs on gay marriage.

Abortion remains legal, and there are normally over a million abortions a year. Roe vs. Wade will probably never be overturned. Even if it were, most states will keep it legal. School prayer is not allowed. Evolution instead of intelligent design is taught in schools.

While Republicans have accomplished nothing for evangelicals, they have pushed full speed ahead on economic and foreign policy conservative agenda items. They cut taxes including the estate tax. They had a buildup against the Soviet Union and invaded Iraq. Case in point, after the 2004 election where evangelicals swept Republicans to victory, they didn’t try seriously for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, or to ban abortion. Instead, they tried to reform social security. Republicans go to evangelicals during election time, but once in office, they don’t deliver on their issues.

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